Brazilian markets turnaround?

Hot girls attract hot money!!!


1. Recent facts

- 27 firms made their debut on the Sao Paulo exchange,Bovespa, in the first half of the year, surpassing the total number of floats in the whole of 2006. And they keep coming!!!

2. Reasons for turnaround

- Interest rate keeps going down

- Improve corporate governance

- Country financial improved by good housekeeping and the commodities boom

- High interest rate given Brazil a fixed-income culture. Decreased in interest rate makes Brazilian pension funds increase the exposure to equities (16% now)

3. Sustainable?

- recent IPOs have to sign up so-called novo mercado guidelines, which do away with the dual shares classes, over-friendly board members and non-existent protection for minority shareholders

- Brazil's sovereign debt may upgrade to investment grade in the next 18 months

4. Risks

- lots of good companies come to the market, but some bad companies too

- Brazil is more open than many emerging markets and so more vulnerable to hot money (some 70% of the money for the IPOs has come from foreign investors)

Conclusion: Warren Buffet has been buying the Brazilian currency....

Source:"Economists" article "the view from cloud nine"

Quotations on "Friendship"

"One soul inhabiting two bodies." Aristotle 384-322BC

"A woman can become a man's friend only in the following stages -- first an acquaintance, next a mistress, and only then a friend." Anton Chekhov 1860-1904

"If a man does not make new acquaintance as he advances through life, he will soon find himself left alone. A man, Sir, should keep his friendship in constant repair." Samuel Johnson 1709-84

"Friendship is constant in all other things. Save in the office and affairs of love." William Shakespeare 1564-1616

"Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends." Francis Bacon 1909-92

"Friendship is one of the most tangible things in a world which offers fewer and fewer supports." Kenneth Branagh 1960-

"To like and dislike the same things, that is indeed true friendship." Sallust 86-35BC

"I do not believe that friends are necessarily the people you like the best, they are merely the people who got there first." Peter Ustinov 1921-2004

名牌，名牌，我愛你！(下)

西方社會是以「我」為中心的個人主義的社會。如果「我」沒有自己獨一無二的個性，而只是追隨他人的話，那「我」不過是平凡的「我們」當中的一份子。這樣的話，「我」便是可有可無及毫無意義的人。因此，「我」活著的意義，在於有著只有「我」才擁有的個性。所以，西方的衣著打扮，大多是大膽地跟隨自己的個性。大家不管大家穿什麽衣服。因此，所謂的名牌對西方人並沒有很大的吸引力。如果大街上有很多人穿著名牌服装，他們大都會避之則吉。比起名牌，人們往往傾向選擇自己喜愛的商品。原因當然是西方社會是以「你是你，我是我」的個人主義為根本觀念。那麼，東方人又是怎樣想呢？

打造和階社會的口號經常在一些東方國家聽到。與他人不同的、為自己獨有的個性，則很難被別人接受，越是有個性的人就越受排斥。為了不被孤立，為了與他人融合在一起，人們只能收斂自己的個性，努力成為一個附和他人的普通的人，亦即是不能與眾不同。這一點從衣服上也看得出來。如果穿得特別一點，在街上被人用奇怪眼光看著，就會感到不自在了。在街上碰到差不多打扮的人就會覺得踏實。但東方人也想炫耀自己，用昂貴的名牌使能達到目的了。但他們想怎樣才能讓別人一看就知是名牌呢？當然是品牌印在商品上！(越顯眼越好)因此，因穿著名牌貨而獲得別人羨慕。所以大家便一起搶購名牌來獲得一點心靈滿足和少少自信了。

名牌，名牌，我愛你！（上）

Louis XIV



名牌的誕生一定要由法國路易十四時代開始說起。在當時國王、貴族等階級存在的時代，他們認為高貴的人要用高級的貨品。因而品牌在當時來說，根本不是認定高級要考慮的問題。法國大革命後，任何有錢人也可穿高級服裝。(革命之前，法律禁示平民穿絲製服裝) 後來富人們為了透過利用服裝與平民區別起來，專門找出色的製衣者訂做服裝。這正是出於炫耀自己，強於他人的心態。

進入廿世紀，科學技術發達，用肉眼已很難區分機器生產或師傅手造的服裝。有錢人開始不滿。聰明的設計師知道產品雖重要，但更重要的是讓人一目了然地認出他與眾不同。相同的商品只製作一件或幾件，標上昂貴的價格，再在商品上顯眼地寫者設計者的姓名。這樣，終於有了明顯的差別。價格再昂貴也賣得很搶手。

但這些高級商品由於設計者的競爭，大量出現在市面上，逐漸失去了原有的珍貴價值。而法國社會也逐漸向於蔑視那些顯示出一副有錢人神態的人。人們反而開始不願意在他人面前顯示自己有高級商品。現在法國人大部份會選擇價廉物美的貨品。

相比之下，大部份亞州人仍然難以抗拒名牌的魔力。深究其原因，就在於東方和西方之間存在的思維差異，在於東西方社會相互不同。

走投無路才創業(下)

除了本業知識，時機亦是十分重要的考慮因素。當施永青先生成立中原地產時，正遇上樓市起飛。在僧少粥多的情況下，加上勤力及節儉(他的拍儅王文彥在選擇泠氣清潔公司時亦要他們投標！)的原則下，得以穩步發展。但如果當年在僧多粥少的情況下發展中原，現在的中原存在與否亦很難說。


施先生舉了一個例子。在沙士期間，中原面對同行充滿創意的競爭手段。好像其中一個競手對手，將中原其中一間盈利高的分行電話號碼在中國宣傳為六合彩貼士號碼（當時中國正興起香港六合彩熱）。當中十個電話中差不多九個都是打來詢問六合彩貼士。這樣嚴重打擊了公司正常運作。最後，迫於無耐下更換電話號碼亦令一些舊客戶流失了。試想想，如果選在這些時侯創業，你能應付五花八門的競爭手段嗎？強如中原在當時的情況下亦要沉著應戰。

所以如果閣下現在經己有一份十分安穩的工作，請不要隨便創業！除非你己走投無路（這時的爆炸力是很驚人的），否則千萬不要隨便有做老闆的念頭。

走投無路才創業(上)

老子


每個人一談起施永青先生，一定想到他經常掛在口邊的老子哲學思想「無為以治」。其實他對創業亦有一番見解，對有心創業的人絕對起了撥冷水的作用。

他認為行業的認識對於創業者的成功起了關鍵作用。在成立中原之前，他是在一間地產發展公司工作。他的職位是影印員或文員。因這個職位，他能夠接到所有內部文件（只得一個影印員）。好像圖則、樓價厘定標準、土地交易細則、買賣過程細節等，他都不會放過任何閱讀的機會，有時更會影印多份副本回家細讀。另外，他還會找一些有關地產的法律知識的書籍來參考。這種對行業知識的追求，成為他日後成立中原地產時的重要資產。

有人會問施先生，甚麼會令你有創業的想法，他說：「走投無路是唯一原因。」他解釋經過多個月來累積的地產知識，有一天他發覺公司所預定的樓價比起市價能承受的低了一點。於是他便大著膽子將自己所寫的計劃書用特別途徑交到老闆手中。隨後公司果然將原本所定的樓價調高，而獲利甚豐。他以為這次幫公司立下了汗馬功勞。但當知道自己人工升幅同公司所獲利相比較後，他便意興闌珊了。再加上他只有中學程度，在當時一切講學歷的環境中，很難會因工作能力而獲得升職。所以他認為在走投無路的情況下，才離開這間公司而成立中原地產集團。

Quotations on "Marriage"

"The chains of marriage are so heavy that it takes two to bear them, and sometimes three." Alexandre Dumas 1824-95

"Marriage isn't a word......it's a sentence!" King Vidor 1895-1982

"The great secret of a successful marriage is to treat all disasters as incidents and none of the incidents as disasters." Harold Nicolson 1886-1968

"Marriage is like life in this ---that it is a field of battle, and not a bed of roses." Robert Louis Stevenson 1850-94

"It doesn't much signify whom one marries, for one is sure to find next morning that it was someone else." Samuel Rogers 1763-1855

"Oh! how many torments lie in the small circle of a wedding-ring!" Colley Cibber 1671-1757

"Marriage is a wonderful invention; but, then again, so is a bicycle repair kit." Billy Connolly 1942-

How to build a nation?

1. Develop an appealing national cuisine
Italy--pasta and pizza
China--dim sum

2. Develop a wine,beer,spirits industry
France--red wine
Russia--vodka

3. Be recognised for being fair and just
Can't find any on Earth

4. Re-engineer the heavens
Macau--casino

5. A good brand travel
Dubai--emirates airlines
Singapore--singapore airline

6. Behave yourself! (polite and well mannered)
Japan

7. Go easy on religion
Hong Kong

8. Master infrastruture
USA

9. Build brands people want
Sweden--H&M,Ikea
France--LV

10. Invest in athletics
USA--NBA
London--Wimbledon

Any country on earth meets all ten requirements?

Source: "Monocle" issue06 SEPTEMBER 2007

談古典音樂

Peter and the Wolf


Mozart


「彼得與狼」是我在中學音樂堂時第一首聆聽的古典音樂。當時大部份的同學都認為是極之沉悶及精神折磨的事，好比現在某一亞洲國際城市在黃昏新聞播映之前一定要聽聽偉大國歌一樣，十分厭惡。當然有幾個同學說從這首音樂中，聽到彼得與狼惡鬥經過，比起金庸先生武俠小說的情節有過之而無不及。而我們以為他們鬼上身吧了。

後來工作多年後，有一天聽香港電台節目「講東講西」，其中節目主持人用了十分淺白的文字來介紹古典音樂，我亦開始產生了興趣。其實欣賞古典音樂並不困難，它只是眾多音樂類別的其中一種。你不須拿著五線譜、研究作曲家或演奏家的生平或歷史背景等等，你只須一對沒有太多耳屎的耳朵就已足夠。正如聽陳奕迅的歌，你要讀曲譜嗎？要了解他的過去嗎？當你聽莫扎特的音樂時，一定以為他的人生是充滿幸福快樂,但相反當他過世後，他連埋葬遺體的錢也不夠！

要了解音樂作品好與壞，並不是由專家說的，應該是由你說的。你的經驗、性格、際遇、及對事情的看法，往往影響你對不同類形音樂喜好，最重要是你自己真的喜歡！所以當你最初接觸古典音樂，應該多聽不同作曲家的作品，從而找到自己的喜愛。

古典音樂世界其實好像一個滿佈食物的自助餐一樣，依你的口味，慢慢品嚐。以後，如果在大會堂或香港文化中心聽到人說：「乜生，你真有文化呀，來聽古典音樂！」 我相信死鬼莫扎特一定回應說：「我的音樂是獻給普羅大眾欣賞，就是不適合你這一類八婆！」

Quotations on "Quotation"

Winston Churchill

I love quotations. Reading quotations saves me a lot of time to obtain wisdom. I would like to share some famous quotations here with different subjects.

"It is a good thing for an uneducated man to read books of quotations." Winston Churchill 1874-1965

"I always have a quotation for everything -- it saves original thinking." Dorothy L. Sayes 1893-1957

"Famous remarks are very seldom quoted correctly." Simeon Strunsky 1879-1948

"What a good thing Adam had. When he said a good thing he knew nobody had said it before." Mark Twain 1835-1910

"I know heaps of quotations, so I can always make quite a fair show of knowledge." O. Douglas 1877-1948

Stanley Kubrick 眼中的演員

The Shining

Stanley Kubrick


最近看了很多有關李安先生對演員的看法，不如看一看另一位大師Stanley Kubrick怎麽說!

「演員不用出主意。主意是我出的,那是導演的工作。我覺得很多人有個誤解,就是去導演演員是怎樣一回事：總括來說,人們都以為那是導演把意願强加在難纏的演員身上,或教不懂得演戲的人怎樣去演戲。我會盡量聘請全世界最出色(不代表最貴)的演員。到時侯,作為導演面對的情況便跟指揮家會面的問題差不多。要世上最傑出的交響樂團表達到含蓄細緻的神髓也非易事,指揮家都希望指揮的都是一級音樂大師,這道理也伸延至演員身上。這樣的話,導演便不需教他們演戲、訓導他們或把自已的意志加在他們身上,因為這方面不會出問題。一個有能力的演員總能表現出你想要的效果,因為出色的演員差不多無所不能的。那導演便可專注在想他們做什麽之上,例如角色的心理狀態、該場戲之目的、故事是關於什麽等等。這些都是會常常出錯的地方,需要導演簡潔和準確的指導。導演的工作是給予演員一些概念,而非教他們怎樣演戲或以花招和詭計騙到他們交貨。若演員沒有天份的話,做怎麼也不能令他們變得有天份。導演可做的,只是給他們概念、意見、態度。演員的工作是去創造情緒。當然,演員本身也會有主意,但那不是他最基本的責任。導演可令一個中庸的演員不那麼中庸,但若如天資稍遜,最終都是會有心無力的。精彩的演出來自演員本身如魔法般的天份和本領,與導演的主意結合。」

Health check of the Dragon in my dream........

Last night, I had a dream. A doctor was doing a health check for the dragon. So I used this rare opportunity to ask the doctor a few questions. (In the dragon world, there is no such a thing called private issue and the big brother is always watching U!)

HAHAHA: Hi doctor, will the surging inflation affect the health of the dragon?

Doctor: No, not now. Do you remember in 1988 and 1994 the inflation rate soured above 25%. This time the symptom of overheating is not caused by excess demand, as it was in the past. Inflation is only 0.9% excluding food. The dragon also introduced price freeze on oil, electricity and water to curb inflation. Allowing the currency to appreciate can be an effective way to control the price index. This would reduce import prices of food and raw materials.

HAHAHA: How about if the stock market bubble burst?

Doctor: If the market tumbles this year, the effect to his health is only modest. The total value tradable shares is only 35% of GDP compared with 180% in Eagle at its peak in 2000. Less than 20% of total financial assets are in stocks and price fall will have less impact on spending. Growth remains strong even stock price dropped over 55% from 2001 to 2005. So, no problem to his health.

HAHAHA: What if the recession in Eagle place?

Doctor: During 2001 Eagle's recession, Dragon's export growth dropped 25%, but imports also slowed sharply, so the growth is remained strong. Domestic demand is more important. Even without the growth of export, the growth should still be over 9%.

HAHAHA: Is Dragon place running short of cheap labor?

Doctor: Yeah everyone was paid much higher than before but their productivity has risen much faster. Then the unit labor cost becomes much cheaper and this is very good too.

HAHAHA: Wow, it seems to me that the dragon is very healthy......

Doctor: Yeah, at least these two years should be alright. But, great care must be taken. Don't worry, dragon is a very very clever creature and he can make anything happen............

Source:"Economists" article "How fit is the panda?"

壽司呀，你從哪裹來?

江戶前握壽司



關西式箱壽司


日本人大約在千多年前已懂得用鹽來醃魚用作防腐。隨著經驗累積，漸漸演變成將飯填在魚肉內，這是壽司的起源。之後才有關西式箱壽司（用木模壓型再切開）和江戶前握壽司的誕生。

壽司發源地大阪在二次大戰前，箱壽司佔有百份之九十的市場。最具代來性就是用鯖魚造的箱壽司。

大約一八零零年即幕府時代後期，江戶（東京舊名）的芝兵（當時主要的漁貨市場）因專賣江戶灣即撈的新鮮海產而有「江戶前」的稱號。最初東京也是箱壽司的天下。後來不知那個天才直接用神手將魚生和醋飯捏成團狀，成為我們日常吃到的握壽司了。從江戶時代後期到二次大戰前，壽司其實都是路邊攤檔的速食，就好像在街吃魚蛋一樣普通。而握壽司能夠在各地生根萌芽，就要多得一九二三年的關東大地震，逼得經營者遠赴其他地方另謀生計。

二次大戰結束後，米糧供應受到管制，而且衛生問題開始受到關注，在街上吃壽司己成過去。（而我們熟識的關東煮及拉麵就在這時侯登場）

隨後,日本經濟發展迅速，壽司再成為日本料理之一，現在巳成為日本文化重要的一部份。

資料來源：食樂日本，林嘉翔箸，遠流出版社

香港正宗的日本壽司料理：（最正宗在日本！）
1.見城
尖沙咀棉登徑30號地下
2369-8307

2.壽司廣
銅鑼灣恩平道42號亨利中心10樓
2882-8752

Can we see the footprints of Mr. Market Bubble?

Recently, a very hot topic in the city is "Are we living under the stock market bubble?" Before that, why don't we look at the past first.



Statistics from:
http://www.webb-site.com "Article: Incredibubble!"

Over the past thirty years, the H.S. index dropped over 30% nine times. But, the nature of the fall was different. In 83, 84, 87 and 89, the bottom reached within few months. Except 87 it was due to global panic crash, the left was all about political reasons. (thanks to the Chinese government again!) Other cases like 73,81,94,97 and 00, part of the stocks were trading at extremely high valuation. It took more than one years to hit the trough, even three years in 2000. Valuation plays a very important role in determining the time of the market to hit the bottom.

Andrew Lok, the UBS Strategist, forecasted 28,000 is the base for 2008 H.S. Index, translating to 2008E pre-exceptional PE of 18.7x, or a 26% premium to the 34-year average of 14.9x. Look at the HSI today, it is already trading near 2008 earning level. I cannot say this is a bubble but the market is already very expensive overall.

Even if you are lucky enough to get a crystal ball which can tell you when the bubble ends, will it help you much to reach financial freedom? I doubt it! Mr. Warren Buffet said when you buy a stock, you are just like running your own company. You need to know the price and value of the company. What determine the value of the company? Earnings, Earnings and Earnings!!!

Stock likes HSBC if priced at 149, it is valued at 2008P/E 10.8x which is very low. On the other hand, if we look at some insurance or property companies in China, they are all trading at very demanding valuation. Just think about if you bought YAHOO! in years 2000 (I did it!!!) and bought HSBC(I didn't do it) at the same time, what are the return? You tell me. I don't want to change my good mood.

So whether the market is in bubble or not, it really doesn't matter. The most important is the price you pay for the company and the value you get. Simple is that. Enjoy the ride of the bubble! Cheers!!!

蔡瀾先生

第一次認識蔡瀾先生，是十多年前他和倪匡先生、黄霑先生主持的電視節目「今夜不設防」。印象只停留在他不停的笑和喝酒。多年後，了解多一點是從蘋果日報和壹週刊的專欄中。最初只覺他只是吃喝玩樂和溝女專家。但閱讀多了他的文章後，發覺他做人態度，對事情看法及求學問的心，他成為我的學習對象。

在和他的旅行中，他告訴團友他曾被好朋友騙了千多萬元，他解決方法並不是找這個人算賬，而是努力在一年內賺回失去的一千萬。在眾多的文章中，他常常鼓勵年青人做任何事不要害怕失敗，不嘗試便一定失敗，嘗試便有一半機會成功。

他的豁達態度更令我在工作上獲益良多。他從不發怒於別人。我問他如有八公或八婆混入旅行團中，他會怎樣？他答道：「視而不見！」他就算知道你的腦袋放在春袋中，他也會對你滿臉笑容，十分客氣。他解釋他是半個商人，所以並不能好像倪匡先生那樣說話隨心。

他求學問的態度，對不知道或不了解的事情，就好像小朋友般不恥下問。這種態度令他擁有＋分廣泛的知識。你可以和他談論書法、繪畫、音樂、文學、歷史、花草、飲食等，當然還有咸濕笑話！和蔡瀾先生一起，絕對有談不完的話題，他就好像一部沒有預設密碼的提款機，任你提款！